The Effect of Unemployment and Poverty Rates on the Human Development Index in North Sumatra from 2013–2024

Sabrina Erisa Aulia Sihotang; Khairunnisa Umi Al Mas; Dwi Atika Zahara; Siti Mardiah

doi:10.61730/a9x1ct73

Authors

Sabrina Erisa Aulia Sihotang Universitas Negeri Medan
Khairunnisa Umi Al Mas Universitas Negeri Medan
Dwi Atika Zahara Universitas Negeri Medan
Siti Mardiah Universitas Negeri Medan

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.61730/a9x1ct73

Keywords:

human development index, unemployment, poverty economic development welfare

Abstract

This study analyzed the effect of unemployment and poverty on the Human Development Index in North Sumatra Province. Human development reflects the quality of life of the population through the dimensions of education, health, and a decent standard of living. However, socio-economic problems such as unemployment and poverty may influence the achievement of human development. This research employed a quantitative approach using secondary time-series data from 2013 to 2024 obtained from official publications of the Central Statistics Agency. Multiple linear regression analysis was used to examine the relationship between unemployment, poverty, and the Human Development Index. The results showed that the regression model had strong explanatory power with an Adjusted R Square value of 0.850, indicating that unemployment and poverty explained 85% of the variation in the Human Development Index. The simultaneous test showed a significant effect with an F value of 26.595 and a significance level of 0.001. Partially, unemployment did not have a significant effect on the Human Development Index with a significance value of 0.210. In contrast, poverty had a negative and significant effect with a regression coefficient of −2.594 and a significance value of 0.000. These findings indicated that poverty played a major role in determining the level of human development. Therefore, poverty reduction and improved access to education and health services are essential strategies for enhancing human development.

References

Adim, A. (2024). Pengaruh Kemiskinan dan Pengangguran Terhadap Indeks Pembangunan Manusia ( IPM ) Indonesia 2018-. Jurnal of Administrative Science, 5(2), 111–129.

Friedman, J., & Hill, R. (2022). Correcting Course:poverty and shared prosperity 2022. In Word Bank (pp. 1–25).

Kasnelly, S., & Wardiah, J. (2021). Pengaruh Tingkat Pengangguran Dan Tingkat Kemiskinan Terhadap Indeks Pembangunan Manusia Di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Syariah, 4(2), 44–54.

Made, N., & Resmarani, N. (2023). The Effect of Economic Growth , Unemployment Rate and Human Development Index on Poverty Rate in North Jakarta. 2(3), 871–880.

Nugraha, G., Rahayu, S. D., & Sukarso, A. (2025). Kemiskinan Dan Partisipasi Tenaga Kerja : Tantangan Dalam Meningkatkan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia Di Indonesia. Jurnal Ilmiah Mea (Manajemen, Ekonomi, Dan Akuntansi), 9(1), 1287–1303.

Ramdani, A. A., Nisa, A. Z., & Rachmawati, Y. C. (2025). Pengaruh Indeks Pembangunan Manusia ( IPM ), Kemiskinan dan Pengangguran Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Provinsi Jawa Timur. Jurnal Cendekia Ilmiah, 4(2), 3222–3235.

Sholikhah, F. N., & Djohan, S. (2025). Pengaruh Jumlah Pengangguran dan Jumlah Penduduk Miskin terhadap Indeks Pembangunan Manusia di Kota Samarinda The Effect of the Number of Unemployed and the Number of Poor Population on the Human Development Index in Samarinda City. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Manajemen, 22(3), 300–310.

Suci, L. E., Addainuri, M. I., & Abidin, M. (2023). The Effect Of Economic Growth , Education , Unemployment , And Human Development Index On Poverty In The Special Region Of Yogyakarta For Period 2015-2021. Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Terapan, 8(2), 284–296. Https://Doi.Org/10.20473/Jiet.V8.I2.51028

Udeaja, C., Trillo, C., Awuah, K. G. B., Makore, B. C. N., Patel, D. A., Mansuri, L. E., & Jha, K. N. (2020). Urban Heritage Conservation and Rapid Urbanization : Insights from Surat , India. Sustainability, 12(2172), 1–26.

Wahyu, P. A. W. (2024). Pengaruh Pengangguran Dan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia Terhadap Kemiskinan Di Provinsi Jawa Timur. Jurnal Akuntansi Dan Ekonomi, 9(3), 13–21. Https://Doi.Org/10.29407/Jae.V9i3.23494